Preparing for the Possibility of a Downturn

Will there be a recession? The future is filled with uncertainty. One of the best ways to provide comfort and control is to start planning now, knowing you may need to adjust as the situation unfolds.


These are actionable steps you can take right now to prepare yourself and your company for an economic downturn.

Assess Your Cash Flow

How much are your expenses each month? What happens if your biggest client doesn’t pay for three months or goes out of business? Do you know how much cash you burn through each month? 


Check out your P&L for one month and look at COGS+ total expenses. This will equal your cash out for the month. Next, review a few months and get the average amount you are spending. This provides a quick snapshot of cash out for the month. 


Dave Ramsey suggests having three to six months of expenses in the bank for personal use. We suggest nine to 12 months for a business.

Examine Your Industry

What will sell better during a time when people and businesses are thinking about saving money? Think of do-it-yourselfers (DIYers)—what are the tasks they’ll be unwilling to do themselves and opt to pay for? Can you expand in that area? 


If you are an electrical contractor, people may be less inclined to put in new electrical work, but they might be willing to spend money on repairs. You could offer a ‘check up’ to see what needs to be updated, like a new electrical panel or replacing outdated lights with LED lights to save money on energy bills.


Is there a service you provide that typically generates more interest during a recession? A colleague of mine prepares taxes. Her tax business increased dramatically in 2008/2009 because taxes are one of the things people don’t want to DIY—the risk is too high. Increase marketing for that service to reach potential clients now.


Is there something you can create now that will provide revenue during a recession? People are more likely to seek information and become DIYers. Can you provide fee-based courses that will educate this audience in your area of expertise? Do you have marketing that will drive people to buy it? Do you have room in the budget to pay for the marketing? 


Coming up with a plan for creating another stream of revenue is a good idea, even if a deep recession never happens.

Review Revenue and Expenses

Can you increase your fees without pricing yourself out of the market? Can you increase your services with current clients? 


Monitor your topline indicators for revenue including leads, sales pipeline, etc. This will give you a better picture of when slowdowns could be coming to affect revenue. Create plans with your leadership team of what to do if a revenue stream slows, and revisit them to make changes as needed.


Finally, scrutinize your expenses. Is there any way to reduce or eliminate costs?

Communicate the Plan with Your Team

Let your team know what measures you will take and how they can help, or if these measures will impact them. If you have to lay off employees, do it quickly and with dignity. Frequent discussions with employees to keep them updated will help you avoid rumors and speculations on the health of the company. It will also give your team a sense of security and trust.


The way you treat people—your employees, customers and vendors—during this tumultuous time is what they’ll remember. Make sure your decisions are aligned with your mission and vision and values. You will get through this! We all will. We are stronger together.


Amid the uncertainty, are you looking for peace of mind that your business finances are in order? Reach out and let’s talk more about how we can help you prepare for the future. 

Our Latest Insight


By Alisa McCabe October 16, 2025
1. Cash Flow Cash flow is the lifeblood of any small business. This metric shows you exactly how much money is flowing in and out of your business over a specific period. Unlike profit, which can be theoretical, cash flow represents real money you can actually spend. Positive cash flow means you're bringing in more than you're spending, while negative cash flow signals potential trouble ahead. Monitor both your operating cash flow (from daily operations) and free cash flow (what's left after necessary investments) to get a complete picture of your financial health. 2. Gross Profit Margin Your gross profit margin reveals how efficiently you're producing and delivering your products or services. A healthy gross profit margin indicates that you are pricing your offerings appropriately and managing production costs effectively. Financial KPIs like gross profit margin help you understand whether your core business model is fundamentally sound before considering overhead expenses. 3. Net Profit Margin While gross profit margin focuses on direct costs, net profit margin gives you the complete financial story. This metric shows what percentage of your revenue remains after all expenses, including overhead, taxes, and interest payments. It's the ultimate measure of your business's profitability and efficiency. A declining net profit margin might indicate rising costs, pricing pressure, or operational inefficiencies that need immediate attention. 4. Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) Understanding how much you spend to acquire each new customer is crucial for sustainable growth. Customer Acquisition Cost includes all marketing and sales expenses divided by the number of new customers gained in that period. This Financial KPI helps you evaluate which marketing channels deliver the best return on investment and ensures you're not spending more to acquire customers than they're worth to your business. 5. Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) Customer Lifetime Value predicts the total revenue you can expect from a customer throughout your entire relationship. Financial KPIs like CAC and CLV help you make informed decisions about how much to invest in customer acquisition and retention. When your CLV significantly exceeds your CAC, you have a healthy, scalable business model. Focus on increasing CLV through improved customer service, upselling, and building long-term relationships. 6. Accounts Receivable Turnover This metric measures how efficiently you collect money owed to your business. Calculate it by dividing your net credit sales by average accounts receivable. A higher turnover ratio indicates you're collecting payments quickly, which improves cash flow. If this ratio is declining, you might need to tighten credit policies, improve collection processes, or reconsider which customers you extend credit terms to. 7. Inventory Turnover Financial KPIs for businesses that carry inventory, show how quickly you're selling and replacing stock. A high inventory turnover typically indicates strong sales and efficient inventory management, while a low turnover might signal excess stock, poor demand forecasting, or products that aren't resonating with customers. Strike the right balance to avoid stockouts while minimizing carrying costs . 8. Debt-to-Equity Ratio This ratio compares your total debt to your business equity, providing insight into your financial leverage and risk profile. A high debt-to-equity ratio might indicate heavy reliance on borrowed money, which increases financial risk but can also accelerate growth. Understanding this ratio helps you make informed decisions about financing options and manage your capital structure effectively. 9. Working Capital Ratio Working capital measures your ability to meet short-term obligations and is calculated by dividing current assets by current liabilities. A ratio above 1.0 indicates you have sufficient liquid assets to cover immediate debts. This Financial KPI is vital for managing seasonal fluctuations and unexpected expenses that could otherwise disrupt your operations. 10. Revenue Growth Rate Track how your revenue is growing month-over-month, quarter-over-quarter, and year-over-year. This metric helps you identify trends, evaluate the effectiveness of growth strategies, and make realistic projections for the future. Consistent revenue growth indicates a healthy business trajectory, while declining growth rates signal the need for strategic adjustments. Take Control of Your Financial Future Mastering these Financial KPIs transforms you from a business owner who's simply hoping for success into one who's strategically driving toward it. However, implementing robust financial tracking systems and interpreting these metrics correctly can feel overwhelming when you're already juggling countless other responsibilities. That's where expert guidance makes all the difference. At First Steps Financial, we specialize in helping small business owners like you establish comprehensive financial monitoring systems, interpret key metrics, and translate data into actionable strategies. Our team understands the unique challenges you face and can help you build the financial foundation necessary for sustainable growth. Don't let uncertainty cloud your business decisions any longer. Let’s connect and discuss how proper financial tracking can accelerate your path to success.
By Alisa McCabe October 3, 2025
Understanding Cost, Value, and Competitive Pricing Strategies Let’s start by exploring the fundamental relationship between cost structure, perceived value, and market positioning. Understanding these strategies will help you develop pricing strategies that maximize profitability while remaining competitive. These core concepts enable you to make informed pricing decisions that align with both your financial objectives and customer expectations. Cost-based pricing ensures each product or service covers expenses while providing a reliable baseline profit margin. Relying exclusively on cost plus markup may miss opportunities to generate additional revenue strategically. Comparing internal costs against industry benchmarks allows pricing that stays competitive without reducing profitability. Value-based pricing emphasizes the benefits customers perceive rather than only production costs. Customers often pay higher prices when pricing accurately reflects the value and benefits they receive. Ongoing assessment of customer preferences and market shifts is essential to keeping pricing effective and sustainable. Competitive pricing evaluates your offerings relative to competitors’ market positions and pricing structures. Analyzing competitor prices uncovers opportunities for differentiation while protecting overall profit margins. Leveraging Tiered Pricing and Bundling Tiered pricing encourages customers to select higher-value options by presenting multiple pricing levels. Offering basic, standard, and premium tiers motivates clients to upgrade without feeling pressured. The highest tier should provide clear, tangible benefits that justify the increased cost and value. Bundling complementary products or services increases average purchase value while reinforcing perceived benefits. Grouped offerings often encourage additional spending and enhance overall customer satisfaction. Financial modeling helps determine which bundles maximize profit margins effectively and support strategic objectives. Key Takeaways: Offer multiple pricing tiers to guide customers toward higher-value options Bundle complementary products or services to increase average transaction value Use financial modeling to identify bundles that improve profit margins Monitoring the performance of these tiers and bundles provides actionable insights for improvement. By tracking revenue, conversion rates, and customer responses, you can make data-driven decisions to refine strategic pricing approaches. Applying Psychological Pricing Strategies Psychological pricing can subtly influence customer decisions while maintaining product value. Pricing strategies that set items just below round numbers, such as $49 instead of $50, increase perceived affordability. This strategy leverages human behavior rather than relying on direct cost adjustments or discounts alone. Anchoring high-priced options alongside standard offerings nudges customers toward mid-tier selections. Strategic placement encourages larger purchases and guides customers to perceive higher value within their choices. By offering comparative displays, you enhance the buyer’s decision-making confidence and the effectiveness of your pricing approach. Key Techniques: Price just below round numbers to increase perceived affordability without reducing profits Anchor high-priced options alongside standard offerings to encourage mid-tier purchases Use price framing and comparisons to highlight perceived savings and enhance customer value Highlight limited availability or urgency to subtly motivate quicker purchase decisions Employ decoy pricing to make certain options appear more attractive and valuable Assessing Market Position and Competitor Pricing Regularly reviewing competitor pricing uncovers gaps and areas where your offerings can increase perceived value. Understanding your market position informs decisions regarding strategic price adjustments, promotional offers, and sustainable margin protection. It also helps you ensure that your products or services remain appealing to customers. Competitor monitoring is, however, not a once-and-done. To support long-term financial stability and growth strategies, you need to continually monitor market trends and emerging competitors. Testing and Iterating for Profitability Testing different price points, packages, or promotional offers helps identify strategies that improve profitability. By executing small-scale pricing experiments, you can gain valuable insights without risking overall revenue or customer satisfaction during implementation. By conducting financial modeling and scenario analysis, you can forecast the impact of pricing changes before full implementation. Continuous iteration creates a dynamic pricing framework that responds to evolving market conditions and customer behavior. This adaptive approach is vital to maintain consumer trust and satisfaction while optimizing profits. Are You Leaving Revenue on the Table? Pricing decisions directly influence revenue, customer perception, and long-term growth potential. At First Steps Financial, we deliver tailored consulting solutions designed specifically for your business needs and goals. Our experts can help you evaluate your business strategies through financial analysis and forecasting. With a results-driven approach, we continually monitor outcomes and make adjustments to create measurable impact. With First Steps Financial, you’re not just getting a consultant; you’re gaining a trusted ally in achieving your goals! Let’s connect.
By Alisa McCabe September 16, 2025
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